WASHINGTON -- Medical sources in Paris have confirmed that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is in a state of "cerebral death." The official word from the French hospital and Palestinian officials in the French capital is that Arafat is in a coma. In other words, Arafat is "brain dead" and on life support. It is now a matter of time -- more when, rather than if -- his death becomes a reality.
When he dies, Arafat will leave behind a somewhat shattered legacy. The Palestinian leader was instrumental in establishing Fatah, the mainline Palestinian resistance organization, and headed the Palestine Liberation Organization, the umbrella organization under which a number of splinter factions were grouped in their struggle to create an independent Palestinian state.
Through his ability to coerce, convince, charm and strong arm, Arafat has managed to keep the Palestinian cause alive all these years, despite severe setbacks such as his expulsion from the Jordanian capital, Amman, in 1970 and then from the Lebanese capital, Beirut, in 1982.
Yet the Palestinian leader has always landed on his feet. Years of living one step ahead of Israeli hit teams and of rival Arab leaders gave him a strong sense for survival. Several times during the Israeli invasion of Beirut in the summer of 1982, he would interrupt meetings and order everyone out of the building just moments before Israeli war planes would strike, dropping 500-kilogram bombs on the building he had just evacuated, leveling it. At least that is the story a number of his aides used to tell.
Many of his closest associates were killed either by Israeli intelligence, or in air raids in Beirut or Tunis, where Arafat and the PLO regrouped after being forced to withdraw from their Lebanese stronghold in 1982.
"The Old Man," as his supporters affectionately refer to him, even survived a plane crash when a sand storm forced his private jet down in the Libyan desert in 1992. Three of his crewmembers died, yet he escaped with hardly a scratch. A close aide once said, "Arafat has more lives than a cat." But time is finally about to catch up with him, relegating him to history books.
Arafat was always concerned by the way history would remember him. And notwithstanding his accomplishments in keeping the Palestinian revolution alive, overcoming insurmountable odds the PLO faced in fighting a well-oiled and highly organized Israeli military and public relation machines, in the end, history might not be too kind to him.
The charismatic Palestinian leader was never able to make the difficult transition from the guerrilla leader he was in Amman and Beirut, to the statesman he should have become once he got to Ramallah. He leaves behind a tattered territory in the West Bank and Gaza, an economy in shambles, peace talks indefinitely shelved, a deplorable security situation, high unemployment and all the other trappings of what constitutes a failed state.
While as the unchallenged leader of the Palestinian Authority he certainly carries much of the blame, it should be stated that Israel did not help much either. The long-standing antagonism that existed between him and Israeli Prime Minister Arial Sharon was certainly a factor.
Accusing the Palestinians of not doing enough to prevent terrorist attacks, Israel began to systematically dismantle a number of the PA's security agencies. The result was a Catch-22 situation where security went into a downward spiral. Meanwhile, unable or at times unwilling, to prevent terror attacks, Arafat, who has been wooed by President Clinton's White House, found himself sidelined by the Bush administration who accused him of being tainted by terrorism.
History will find that Arafat's greatest shortcoming was his failure to nominate a leader to replace him at the appropriate moment. The void his death will create will leave behind a precarious political situation. Analysts fear a power grab by Islamist groups -- Hamas and Islamic Jihad -- could lead to civil war.
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Which is why identifying Arafat's replacement is of paramount importance to the future of the PA. There are, in fact, few candidates on the slate, and each one comes with some baggage. The man who at one time Arafat chose as a likely replacement, Mahmoud Abbas, or Abu Mazen, the first Palestinian prime minister, fell out of favor when he disagreed with Arafat over the use of violence and weapons in the intifada. He is the only surviving member of the "founding fathers" of Fatah, the largest and most prominent of the Palestinian resistance organizations. Since Arafat was hospitalized in Paris, Abu Mazen has re-emerged as the potential replacement.
But in the words of one Hamas official who asked not to be identified, "Abu Mazen will not last a day," because he lacks the history and the charisma of Arafat, and he is not widely accepted by the Palestinian street. Furthermore, Abu Mazen is reported to suffer from prostate cancer.
The next potential candidates to replace Arafat are the "new guard," those known as the "insiders," the ones who grew up in the occupied territories. They differentiate themselves from Arafat's group who came into political maturity in exile in Jordan, Lebanon and Tunisia.
Among them are Jibril Rajoub, Hani el Hassan, Nabil Shaath, Gaza Security Chief Mohammad Dahlan (preferred by the United States) and Marwan Barghouti -- a man currently held in an Israeli jail on charges of terrorism.
Barghouti, who until his arrest was the preventive security chief in the West Bank, enjoyed tremendous power and popularity, including close links to the CIA. In a recent poll, he ranked second after Arafat. Barghouti, though, is serving five consecutive life sentences, plus 40 years, in Israel for involvement in shooting attacks. Should he be elected to replace Arafat, it would create a political dilemma for Israel. According to the Council for the National Interest, Palestinian Authority law states that the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, Rawhi Fattouh, would step in to serve as interim president for 60 days, until elections are held. However, 60 days without leadership in the Palestinian territories would create a dangerous void.
The PLO, reports CNI, could overrule this law and appoint Abbas in accordance with a rumored letter written by Arafat to the former premier, naming him successor. In keeping with his secretive style, Arafat would have played his cards close to his chest to the very end.
