Only the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Oct. 22-24 among 1,195 likely voters put Bush clearly ahead with support of 51 percent of respondents, a full 5 percentage points ahead of the Democratic Party nominee for president at 46 percent with a 3-point plus or minus margin of error. But Gallup has consistently given Bush the most favorable margins in recent months, and some analysts have argued that the way Gallup statistically chooses its samples unintentionally skews the samples in favor of Bush.
The Washington Post, Newsweek and ABC News all put the president ahead by a single percentage point in the most recent polls. The Post's daily tracking poll gave the president 49 percent of the vote to Kerry's 48 percent among 1,638 likely voters contacted Oct. 20-23 with again a plus or minus 3-point margin of error. Independent candidate Ralph Nader, though down to 1 percent, could yet prove the hinge of fate here.
Newsweek put the president's lead at double that, but still only a cliffhanging 2 points: 48 percent to 46 percent among 880 likely voters surveyed Oct. 21-22 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. ABC News in its daily tracking poll had 49 percent for Bush with 48 percent for Kerry in a poll of 1,638 likely voters conducted by telephone Oct. 19-21 with a 2.5-point plus or minus margin of error.
Newsweek crunched its state-by-state poll numbers to conclude the number of toss-up states was down to six with Bush leading in four, Kerry in one and Wisconsin tied.
Bush simply must win Florida to hope to be re-elected, and Kerry has got to have Ohio for the same reason. The Newsweek poll crunching suggested both can do it, but by the narrowest margins imaginable: The president leads in Florida by 1 percent -- 48 to 47 among respondents -- while Kerry leads in Ohio by the same margin, also 48 to 47.
In Florida, the two candidates are statistically tied, each receiving 46 percent of support among 800 likely voters conducted Oct. 19-21 by the Miami Herald and the St. Petersburg Times. The error margin there was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Both candidates have strong institutional aces they are playing. The GOP controls the state administrative machinery in Florida and Ohio and is flexing its muscles through them to query or slow the registration of many new voters. The Democrats hope to benefit from enormous voter-registration drives, especially in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
One rule of thumb being thrown around is that if the voter turnout is relatively low compared to expectations -- in other words around 110 million -- this will favor the president's re-election campaign. But if it is toward the higher end of the probable spectrum, around 122 million voters, this will probably favor Kerry as many polls have shown his support greater among younger voters and newly registered ones. However, both those groups are less likely to turn out.
The New York Times Sunday reported 11 states still regarded by both campaigns as battlegrounds. This analysis suggests more opportunities favoring the president with Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Colorado tilting toward his camp.
It is also telling that neither The New York Times nor Newsweek any longer includes Missouri among the battleground states. Missouri has 10 Electoral College votes, considerably less than Florida's 27, Pennsylvania's 21 or Ohio's 20. But Missouri is the psychological bellwether state of the Heartland. Different parts of it reflect the trends of the Breadbasket Midwest, the Industrial Great Lakes area to its north or the South. And Missouri has voted for the winner in every presidential election in over the past century except for 1956. It may therefore be telling that the Kerry campaign despite its protestations to the contrary has thrown in the towel there.
If Kerry can carry Ohio and Florida, he wins, even if the tide is against him in many other battlegrounds. But it is an uphill fight for him in both places. There are many wild cards and butterfly effects -- movements of small but key voting groups in potentially decisive states like Arab-Americans in Michigan and Jewish-Americans in Florida that could have disproportionately major impact this time round. It ain't gonna be over till it's over: And maybe not even then.
Copyright 2004 by United Press International
