"If people don't care about this presidential race, it's hard to see what would bring people to the polls," said Mark Smith, political science professor at the University of Washington. Smith is the author of a study called "The Contingent Effects of Ballot Initiatives and Candidate Races on Turnout," published in 2001 in the American Journal of Political Science.
This year voters in 34 states will decide a total of 162 ballot propositions on controversial issues such as same-sex marriage, the rights of illegal immigrants and $3 billion for stem-cell research.
Same-sex marriage is the most hotly contested issue this year, appearing on ballots in 13 states. All would define marriage as being between a man and a woman, most of them also preventing recognition of same-sex unions from other states.
While most states considering the issue are considered safely Republican -- and thus considered more socially conservative -- it will also be taken up in the presidential race battleground states of Michigan, Ohio and Oregon.
Seth Kilbourn is national field director for the Human Rights Campaign, a national gay and lesbian advocacy group that has committed money and campaign staff to defeating these initiatives. He said that these measures were forced onto state ballots by "extremists" and political operatives hoping that they would bring conservatives to the polls and affect the national and state elections.
"People will have to vote" on the initiatives, he said, "even though they aren't even a blip on the radar screen of what most voters care about." While these measures are likely to have a substantial impact on gay-rights issues in these states, Kilbourn said they would have a marginal effect on the election.
The initiative with the greatest potential to affect the outcome of this year's election is Colorado's amendment to allocate its nine electoral votes in proportion to the popular vote, rather than the current winner-take-all system. It would take effect immediately, potentially altering this year's electoral map.
If the measure passes and current polling trends -- in which President Bush would win the state and take its nine electoral votes -- hold, four of Colorado's electoral votes could go to Sen. John Kerry, a switch that could determine the outcome of the election and threaten a mess on the scale of 2000, regardless of what happens in Florida.
The measure, should it pass, would almost certainly be challenged in the courts. The U.S. Constitution says the states will appoint electors "in such manner as the legislature thereof may direct." Lawyers will likely argue that the ballot process lies outside of the legislative process and has no authority to change the electoral distribution.
While Shaun Bowler, professor of political science at the University of California Riverside, said the amendment would "get creamed in the courts," Nancy Martorano of the University of Dayton in Ohio thinks that challengers "won't have much of a leg to stand on."
Fears of the amendment's aftermath may be unwarranted, however, as support for it has dropped significantly in recent weeks.
The national impact of Colorado's amendment is quite uncharacteristic of ballot measures. Most of the remaining 161 are much more local in scope, though there are a few that might have larger implications.
A California initiative would establish a constitutional right to conduct stem-cell research and authorize $3 billion in bonds to fund it.
Bowler said this measure would be an important indicator of national attitudes toward this controversial research. If it is rejected by the largely liberal voters of California, he said, it will demonstrate how strongly Americans oppose stem-cell research.
A Field Poll conducted Sept. 25-28 showed that likely voters favored the measure 46 percent of respondents to 39 percent. The initiative would allow money to go to all types of stem-cell research in California, including adult and embryonic stem-cell research.
Alaska also has stirred controversy by taking up Measure 2, which would legalize the use, possession and distribution of marijuana for people 21 and older.
A similar measure failed in 2000 with 59 percent voting against. That measure went further than this year's, making the legal age 18 and offering parole for prisoners convicted of drug crimes. The state has allowed residents to possess small amounts of marijuana since a 1975 state Supreme Court ruling placed the drug's use under residents' right to privacy.
If the measure passes, marijuana use will remain illegal under federal law.
Measures to expand the use of marijuana for medical purposes will be decided in Oregon and Montana.
The second-most common issue on ballots this year is gambling, with 13 measures appearing in six states. Gambling remains a popular ballot issue because governments and voters alike see it as an easy source of revenue.
Washington's Smith said that voter objections to gambling are overcome by its promise of a cheap revenue alternative to higher taxes. The Initiative and Referendum Institute at the University of Southern California says that more than two-thirds of the more than 50 gambling initiatives that have appeared on state ballots since 1980 have passed.
One other measure to watch will be Arizona's Proposition 200, which would require proof of citizenship in order for residents to vote or receive state benefits. The state's entire congressional delegation opposes the measure, even though residents largely support it.
The measure has been compared to California's Proposition 187, a 1994 ballot measure seeking to limit benefits for illegal immigrants that was struck down by a federal judge and became a symbol for the need for immigration reform.
Legal experts say that Arizona's measure is vague about which benefits it would deny illegal immigrants and is also vulnerable on constitutional grounds. But with Arizona taking the lead in the crackdown on illegal immigration across the border with Mexico, voters may overlook the measure's specifics and vent their frustrations with their votes.
Other issues on state ballots this year include healthcare reform, limits on medical malpractice suits, education funding and a Colorado proposal to require utilities to provide 10 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2015.
Copyright 2004 by United Press International
